The American Church in Crisis
Special Report: The
Attendance is down. The picture is bleak. New research reveals startling and sobering facts. What do they mean for you, your church and Christianity in
from Outreach magazine, May/June 2006
Sundays are quiet in today's
Most of us suspect that fewer people are attending church regularly. We need look no farther than our neighbors' driveways on a Sunday morning. And daily, we're confronted with our increasingly individualistic, secular and narcissistic culture. Those in professional church work have heard the rumors: Membership in mainline churches is steadily declining. Organic churches are on the rise with people trading sanctuaries for living rooms. Even online faith communities are growing. But do we know what's really happening in the traditional Church? And to what extent that will impact the future of Christianity in
For this special report, we talked to prominent researchers, missiologists and church leaders to identify church attendance trends in
We lay out seven facts about the
To be sure, church attendance is a moving target. However, researchers continue to ask questions and apply their methodologies to assess the realities of church and faith in
Here, we explore seven discoveries about the
7 STARTLING FACTS:
AN UP CLOSE LOOK AT CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN
1. Less than 20% of Americans regularly attend church—half of what the pollsters report.
While Gallup polls and other statisticians have turned in the same percentage—about 40% of the population—of average weekend church attendees for the past 70 years, a different sort of research paints quite a disparate picture of how many Americans attend a local church on any given Sunday.
Initially prompted to discover how church plants in
The Numbers
His findings reveal that the actual rate of church attendance from head counts is less than half of the 40% the pollsters report. Numbers from actual counts of people in Orthodox Christian churches (Catholic, mainline and evangelical) show that in 2004, 17.7% of the population attended a Christian church on any given weekend.
Another study published in 2005 in The Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion by sociologists C. Kirk Hadaway and Penny Long Marler—known for their scholarly research on the Church—backs up his findings. Their report reveals that the actual number of people worshipping each week is closer to Olson's 17.7% figure—52 million people instead of the pollster-reported 132 million (40%).
"We knew that over the past 30 to 40 years, denominations had increasingly reported a decline in their numbers," Marler says. "Even a still-growing denomination like the Southern Baptist Convention had reported slowed growth. Most of the mainline denominations were all reporting a net loss over the past 30 years. And at the same time, the
The Halo Effect
What Hadaway and Marler, along with Mark Chaves, author of the "National Congregations Study," discovered was at play is what researchers call "the halo effect"—the difference between what people tell pollsters and what people actually do. Americans tend to over-report socially desirable behavior like voting and attending church and under-report socially undesirable behavior like drinking.
Gallup Poll Editor in Chief Frank Newport agrees that the halo effect factors in to poll results. During a Gallup telephone survey of a random sampling of about 1,000 Americans nationwide, interviewers ask respondents questions such as, "In the last seven days, did you attend a church service, excluding weddings and funerals?" to determine their church-going habits.
"When people try to reconstruct their own behavior, particularly more frequently occurring on-and-off behavior, it is more difficult, especially in a telephone interview scenario,"
"Although about 40% of Americans are regular church attendees, it doesn't necessarily mean 40% are in church on any given Sunday," he explains. "The most regular church attendee gets sick or sleeps in. The other reason may be people who tell us they go to church but are worshipping in non-traditional ways, such as small groups, people meeting in gyms or school libraries."
A Disconnect
In another study surveying the growth of U.S. Protestants, Marler and Hadaway discovered that while the majority of people they interviewed don't belong to a local church, they still identify with their church roots. "Never mind the fact that they attend church less than 12 times a year," Marler observes. "We estimate that 78 million Protestants are in that place. Ask most pastors what percentage of inactive members they have—they'll say anything from 40-60%."
Even with a broader definition of church attendance, classifying a regular attendee as someone who shows up at least three out of every eight Sundays, only 23-25% of Americans would fit this category. Olson notes that an additional million church attendees would increase the percentage from 17.7% to only 18%. "You'd have to find 80 million more people that churches forgot to count to get to 40%."
Clearly, a disconnect between what Americans say and what they actually do has created a sense of a resilient church culture when, in fact, it may not exist.
2. American church attendance is steadily declining.
In 1990, 20.4% of the population attended an Orthodox Christian church on any given weekend. In 2000, that percentage dropped to 18.7% and to 17.7% by 2004. Olson explains that while church attendance numbers have stayed about the same from 1990 to 2004, the
Well-known church researcher and author Thom Rainer notes that the failure of churches to keep up with the population growth is one of the Church's greatest issues heading into the future. In a 2002 survey of 1,159
Denominational Differences
A breakdown of overall attendance percentages by church type shows decreases across the board in evangelical, mainline and Catholic churches.
The most significant drop in attendance came at the expense of the Catholic Church, which experienced an 11% decrease in its attendance percentage from 2000 to 2004. Next, and not far behind were mainline churches, which saw a 10% percentage decline. Evangelicals experienced the smallest drop at 1%.
Though scholars are hesitant to definitively acknowledge a decline, they do say that attendance is not increasing: "There's no good evidence to suggest that overall church attendance has gone up in the recent decade," Chaves says, adding that he believes there has been a decline. He cites the watershed book Bowling Alone (Simon & Schuster) by Harvard sociologist Robert D. Putnam as his primary reasoning.
"I think church attendance is a close cousin to the other kinds of activities Putnam says Americans are doing alone—indicating that Americans have become increasingly disconnected from family and friends," Chaves says. "So if all those areas are going down and church attendance isn't, that would be odd."
He identifies various implications declining attendance may have for church leaders: "If this is the reality, then I see a trend toward people being less involved, while maintaining a connection to the church. Maybe a pastor used to be able to count on seeing someone every week, but what's now happening is that people's lives are busier and they're attending more infrequently. So church leaders can't count on these same people to teach Sunday school, serve on committees, etc."
Contradictory Research
Recent data from The Barna Group (barna.org) indicates just the opposite. Church attendance is actually growing, company President George Barna says—climbing slowly from 1996's 37% to 47% in 2006. His research shows that other core religious behaviors are also up. For example, Bible reading increased from 40% in 2000 to 47% in 2006.
"The data shows the number of unchurched people is unchanged—76 million adults," he says. "And 47% of Americans reported to us that in the last seven days, they attended a church service, excluding weddings and funerals." His research indicates that attendance at house churches has also spiked. That may explain, Barna says, why these core religious behaviors are up. "Nevertheless, people are seeking God."
Ed Stetzer, missiologist and director of the Center for Missional Research at the North American Mission Board (namb.net) of the Southern Baptist Convention, has found similar evidence of spiritual behavior occurring outside church walls. He recently finished a study on alternative faith communities, and found that a growing number of people are finding Christian discipleship and community in places other than their local churches. The study found that 24.5% of Americans now say their primary form of spiritual nourishment is meeting with a small group of 20 or less people every week.
"About 6 million people meet weekly with a small group and never or rarely go to church," Stetzer says. "There is a significant movement happening."
3. Only one state is outpacing its population growth.
In
A few states break from regional attendance trends.
Olson notes that states with very diverse cultures tend to have lower attendance numbers than the states surrounding them. "Most of our churches know how to address only one culture," he says.
A closer look at the states only found more decline between 1990 and 2000. Church attendance declined in more than two-thirds of all
4. Mid-sized churches are shrinking; the smallest and largest churches are growing.
While
"The best way I can describe it is that a lot of people believe they're upgrading to first class when they go to a larger church," Olson says. "It seems highly likely that some of the people in those mid-sized churches are the ones leaving and going to the larger churches."
Stetzer agrees and adds that because today's large churches emphasize small groups and community, hoping to create a small-church feel, they offer the best of both worlds.
"There are multiple expectations on mid-sized churches that they can't meet—programs, dynamic music, quality youth ministries," he says. "We've created a church consumer culture."
As president of the Bridgeleader Network, David Anderson, senior pastor and founder of
"You have just enough people not to be missional anymore," he explains. "You don't have to grow anymore to sustain your budget."
As for why the smallest churches have kept up, Shawn McMullen, author of the newly released Unleashing the Potential of the Smaller Church (Standard), notes that smaller churches cultivate an intimacy not easily found in larger churches. "In an age when human interaction is being supplanted by modern technology, many younger families are looking for a church that offers community, closeness and intergenerational relationships," he says.
Olson points out that for a church of 50 or less, the only place to go is up. "They have a relatively small downside and a big upside. A church of 25 can't decline by 24 and still be on the radar. But it can grow by 200."
5. Established churches—40 to 190 years old—are, on average, declining.
All churches started between 1810 and 1960 (excluding the 1920s) declined in attendance from 2003 to 2004. The greatest attendance decrease in that period (-1.6%) came from churches begun in the 1820s, followed by the 1940s (-1.5%).
The numbers climb to the plus side in the 1970s, with churches between 30 and 40 years old showing a slight .3% increase. The percentage goes up significantly for congregations launched in the 1980s (1.7%) and 1990s (3%).
Established churches in decline are suffering from a leadership crisis, says Kirbyjon Caldwell, senior pastor of
Reversing the decline, he says, was about the leaders of the church—both clergy and laity—deciding to redefine the congregation and meet the needs of the community.
Bob Coy, senior pastor and founder of Calvary Chapel Fort Lauderdale, points to a different crisis for established churches—one of relevancy, especially in light of today's young people searching for real truth and reasons for actions. "The emptiness of yesterday's liturgy has got to become relevant," Coy says. "The next generation is screaming for a relationship with God."
The declining numbers send a message to church leaders content with only building their own churches, Olson says: "I hear people say, 'Why do we need new churches? Why don't we help our established churches do better?' or 'Don't we have enough churches?' If we keep doing the same things, we'll continue to have the same results—decline. Established churches are the base, and new churches build on top of that. Using established churches to keep up with population growth is just not going to work."
6. The increase in churches is only 1/4 of what's needed to keep up with population growth.
Between 2000 and 2004, the net gain (the number of new churches minus the closed churches) in the number of evangelical churches was 5,452, but mainline and Catholic churches closed more than they started for a net loss of 2,200, leaving an overall net gain of 3,252 for all Orthodox Christian churches. "In this decade, approximately 3,000 churches closed every year; while more churches were started, only 3,800 survived," Olson explains. In the 21st century, the net gain in churches has amounted to only 800 each year.
10,000 More Churches Needed
Perhaps most telling is the fact that from 2000 to 2004, a net gain of 13,024 churches was necessary to keep up with the
The gap is a serious one for Christianity in
Although ultimately,
"What's going to make an effective church plant in their community depends on what their community looks like," he explains. "Far too many pastors plant their church in their heads and not in their community."
Olson encourages churches, regardless of their size or expansion strategy, to either plant a church or work with other congregations to plant a church every five years.
Many church plants of the last five years are intentionally smaller than those of the 1990s, he observes, because the younger generation is opting for smaller churches that offer a more intimate experience. "So we need to realize that if churches are going to be smaller, we'll need to start more of them to have the same impact."
7. In 2050, the percentage of the
So what is the future of the
He notes that while church attendance is projected to increase from 50 million in 1990 to 60 million in 2050, because the U.S. Census estimates that
The prognosis doesn't discourage
Coy, too, sees the projections as a call to action for church leaders: "If we've given the impression that church is an option, maybe we're the ones who are at fault," he says. But church attendance is only the beginning, he adds. "We have to get serious and begin to live it every day."
Clearly, the future looks less than bright for the Church in
"Listen to the Church," he writes in Show Me the Way (Crossroad). "I know that isn't a popular bit of advice at a time and in a country where the church is frequently seen more as an 'obstacle' in the way rather than as the 'way' to Jesus. Nevertheless, I'm profoundly convinced that the greatest spiritual danger for our times is the separation of Jesus from the Church. The Church is the body of the Lord. Without Jesus, there can be no Church; and without the Church, we cannot stay united with Jesus. I've yet to meet anyone who has come closer to Jesus by forsaking the Church. To listen to the Church is to listen to the Lord of the Church."
Rebecca Barnes, a freelance writer based in
For a detailed explanation of the methodology behind the facts and statistics in this report, visit outreachmagazine.com. Information about individual PowerPoint presentations on church attendance in the nation, all 50 states and the 80 largest metropolitan areas are available at theamericanchurch.org.
Insights for Crisis: Bill Hybels
As founding and senior pastor of
I believe churches that are seeing a decline in attendance need a new vision—one that is clear and purposeful. We train church leaders all over the world, and we always say that if you can change a church leader, you can change a church; and if you can change a church, you can change a community, a state, a nation and, ultimately, the world.
But we don't talk much about church growth. We talk about churches reaching their full redemptive potential. Not every church can grow numerically. But that doesn't mean we can't attempt each year to do a better job of living out Acts 2 values.
Ask yourself: Is my church's concern for the poor increasing? Are we trying to bridge racial divides? Are we responding to the AIDS pandemic? Are we working to overcome systems that oppress people? Asking ourselves these questions and responding to them is part of what it means to be a redemptive faith community.
I continue to see and hear about churches asking these questions, so I'm not convinced the Church is in a downward spiral of any kind. It's possible some folks are trying various alternatives to the typical church gathering, but I fully believe that will gradually work itself out. The many teachings of Scripture are quite clear that professing Christians need to gather in local fellowships and not just attend church, but be the Church—to each other and to our community.
Less church attendance doesn't necessarily mean that people are less dedicated to knowing Christ or loving their families. To me, these are pace-of-life issues. The number of scheduled activities has bled way over into Sunday. We have people at Willow Creek who 15 years ago would be in church 50 weeks a year, simply because their lives allowed that kind of schedule. Now, baseball and soccer games are on Sunday mornings, and a lot of student activities happen over weekends.
So do we as church leaders say to people, "You're being bad parents"? I find that parents are generally bending over backwards to raise good kids. Do we warn them about inconsistency? It's complex. Less church attendance is an American culture issue.
Insights for Crisis: Kirbyjon Caldwell
Kirbyjon
When I was growing up, you could make the argument that Christian faith had a monopoly on society. It wasn't just on Sunday. When someone talked about the Lord on Monday, you knew which Lord, which God they were talking about. Now that's not the case. We're no longer a monopoly. Christianity is now in a competitive situation.
But for any local church, the real competition today is television, the Internet, shopping malls and other social options. The culture offers so many alternatives. Culture—not the "church across town"—is the local church's primary competitor.
We're losing ground. But this is not the time to say, "Woe are we." I believe this is an opportunity to really show up and make a difference for the Kingdom in Jesus' name. I don't care what their socio—economic status is—people are looking for hope for tomorrow, healing from yesterday and a home for today.
Our churches don't necessarily have to adapt who we are, but what we do. We must intentionally identify, predict and meet the needs of people—or else decline. It's a basic business and spiritual principle: When you don't adjust your methodology and strategy, you will lose market share—for pastors, that means members.
The best way for our churches to grow is for members to be so excited about what God is doing through their church that they want to tell others about it. Leaders, be they clergy or laity, have to decide: We will make a Kingdom impact in our community.
Insights for Crisis: George Barna
George Barna founded The Barna Group (barna.org) to research and analyze American culture and create resources designed to facilitate moral and spiritual transformation. His latest book, Revolution (Tyndale), explores a paradigm shift he believes is happening in the ways a growing number of committed Christians are experiencing and expressing their faith apart from the institutional church.
We're living in a time where spirituality and faith are hot. But it doesn't necessarily mean they're deep. In the last 25 years, I've studied and worked with thousands of local churches. I saw the decline, both in attendance and discipleship, and started doing research to figure out if anybody's life is being genuinely transformed.
Our research revealed that God is still active in the lives of millions of people. But among the people whose lives have been radically touched by God, the transformation was typically happening outside the local church. That helps explain why we have millions of people who want to be part of the Church—capital "C"—but fewer and fewer who are interested in the church—small "c."
These "Revolutionaries"—by definition, their faith is the highest priority in their lives—are seeking diverse and alternative forms of church, through affinity groups, homeschooling, house churches, the Internet and marketplace ministries.
We estimate that the percentage of Americans who express and experience their faith through the local church will drop from 70% in 2000 to about 30-35% in 2025. And the percentage of people experiencing their faith through an alternative faith-based community will increase from 5% in 2000 to 30-35% in 2025.
This revolution of faith is happening. Pastors should try to find a way for their church to cooperate with it. Whether that happens inside a building, at Starbucks or on the basketball court is irrelevant. Transformation is more about the commitment of your heart than where you hang out on Sunday morning.
Insights for Crisis: Bob Coy
As founding and senior pastor of
I've never been impressed with our numbers. Even the larger churches in this country have not made the impact they think they have. I think most of us know that we're not changing the world.
So what do we do now? I believe we have to get serious about what God has called us to do—and be seen as a place that's doing, not just saying.
I believe we need to mobilize and ask ourselves some hard questions: What is our church doing in the downtown city? Is there a village in
We also need to return to the sufficiency of Scripture—the Bible is not just a great book, it's the best book. After doing the same thing for a long time, we start to look to other models instead of going back to the book. In the last 20 years, our churches have softened the Gospel into a watered-down opportunity to know the truth. We're less effective in declaring salvation.
Think about the "Got Milk?" campaign. No one messed with the product, just the packaging. My message to young pastors: Remind your congregation of what they have—the blood of Christ, salvation, heaven. If we go back to the product, the product changes lives.
Insights for Crisis: David Anderson
As founding and senior pastor of
I would love to see greater numbers of people in our churches, but the reality is that I'm not measuring spiritual temperature by church attendance. High church attendance does not spiritual growth make; it's only a partial indicator of a community or culture.
I continue to see a correlation between multicultural population growth and no church growth. Some 40% of Americans age 18 and younger are non-Anglo, and they perceive churches as archaic—the more unicultural the church, the more archaic.
If we stay on this course, the Church will become irrelevant, and spirituality will continue to grow as an independent connection to God. But we don't have to be in decline. People want to connect. When I consult with leaders, I always tell them, "If your Wal-Mart is multicultural, your church can be multicultural."
Unfortunately, most American churches today don't know how to reach outside one culture. We really haven't taught people in our congregations how to do multicultural evangelism.
When a church focuses on reaching all people in its area of influence, God gets behind it. His power breaks down barriers that keep people out of church. While there may still be a need for black, ethnic or immigrant churches, I believe the ones that are the most vibrant—the ones that reach out across racial and cultural lines—have an extra touch of God's power.
This content originally appeared in the May/June 2006 issue of Outreach magazine, the gathering place for ideas, insights and stories of today's outreach-oriented church leaders. For more ideas and information, visit outreachmagazine.com. For your free 3-issue mini subscription to Outreach magazine, click here.
Copyright © 2006 Outreach.
Labels: american church, church growth, church trends, lighthouses neighborhood outreach prayer care share, missional church, Missional church network leadership
1 Comments:
I have questions about Olson's methodology. I would be careful about drawing on his conclusions in the future.
See my post:
Weekly U.S.A. Church Attendance: The Sociologists Weigh In
all the best,
Andy Rowell
Andy Rowell
Doctor of Theology (Th.D.) Student
Duke Divinity School
Durham, North Carolina
Blog: Church Leadership Conversations
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